Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.083466 0.093236 0.103315 0.114462 0.126418 0.138830 0.152662
2024-12-29 0.066368 0.080808 0.096562 0.114897 0.135518 0.157871 0.183806
2025-01-05 0.054941 0.072320 0.092239 0.116439 0.144729 0.176449 0.214396
2025-01-12 0.046424 0.065661 0.088712 0.117782 0.152882 0.193338 0.242925
2025-01-19 0.039411 0.059703 0.085051 0.118114 0.159187 0.207658 0.268292
2025-01-26 0.037410 0.059718 0.088464 0.126892 0.175603 0.234042 0.308174
2025-02-02 0.033111 0.056077 0.086710 0.128764 0.183225 0.249697 0.335240
2025-02-09 0.029853 0.053441 0.085921 0.131587 0.191851 0.266509 0.363777
2025-02-16 0.026080 0.049591 0.083085 0.131363 0.196317 0.278001 0.385735
2025-02-23 0.025064 0.049738 0.085731 0.138499 0.210419 0.301768 0.423223
2025-03-02 0.023738 0.049228 0.087320 0.144121 0.222535 0.323104 0.457867
2025-03-09 0.020458 0.045186 0.083412 0.141762 0.223723 0.330221 0.474415
2025-03-16 0.016970 0.040486 0.078347 0.137736 0.222829 0.335034 0.488725
2025-03-23 0.015739 0.039617 0.079140 0.142270 0.233902 0.355883 0.524206
2025-03-30 0.014375 0.038332 0.079163 0.145620 0.243369 0.374750 0.557400
2025-04-06 0.012932 0.036694 0.078464 0.147786 0.251138 0.391409 0.587877
2025-04-13 0.011385 0.034614 0.076846 0.148402 0.256612 0.404966 0.614362
2025-04-20 0.011558 0.036133 0.081414 0.158760 0.276373 0.438243 0.667391
2025-04-27 0.010459 0.034763 0.080861 0.160981 0.284239 0.455269 0.698883
2025-05-04 0.009622 0.033846 0.081021 0.164288 0.293711 0.474582 0.733598
2025-05-11 0.008404 0.031842 0.079056 0.164032 0.297809 0.486418 0.758297
2025-05-18 0.008346 0.032641 0.082283 0.172349 0.314886 0.516566 0.808062
2025-05-25 0.008077 0.032868 0.084423 0.178888 0.329339 0.543146 0.853162